Market Forecasts and Analysis from NordFX

Discussion in 'Market Forecasts and Analysis' started by Julia NordFX, Mar 11, 2017.

  1. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX New Member

    Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 30 - November 3, 2017


    First, a review of last week’s forecast:

    - As the opinions of analysts were split 50/ 50, we had decided not to give a clear forecast for EUR/USD for the second week in a row. In terms of what happened, despite the bulls having an advantage at the beginning of the week, the bears eventually won. The House of Representatives of the US Congress was on their side this time, allowing the Senate to approve Trump's tax reform by a simple majority. But that's not all: on Thursday, 26 October, the dollar experienced a surge of support from the ECB, which decided to extend the QE quantitative easing program and continue buying bonds until the end of September 2018. All this hit the European currency so strongly, that it lost about 250 points against the dollar in two days.
    It would be difficult to suspect that graphical analysis had been aware of the plans of the US Congress and the ECB. It was, nevertheless, graphical analysis that managed to predict the maximum level of the Euro fall,1.1575, with 100% accuracy. As a result, the pair completed the three-month "head-shoulders" figure and froze around the mark of 1.1605;

    - GBP/USD. Here the supporters of the bears had a slight advantage: 55% versus 45%. They also won with just a small advantage. During the entire week, the pair was either falling or rising; in the end, it completed the five-day period 70 points lower than it had started;

    - The forecast for USD/JPY also turned out to be correct. Despite having difficulty overcoming resistance from its adversary, it nevertheless managed to reach the required point: the upper boundary of the mid-term side channel 108.00-114.50. To be precise, the pair took the height of 114.45, after which a predictable rebound followed, which saw it return to the Pivot Point of the week at the level of 113.70 by the end of Friday;

    - One of the scenarios for USD/CHF voiced last week had the pair to rise to a landmark level of 1.0000. And, even though it was supported by just a minority of experts, it turned out to be the correct one. As predicted, the pair was strongly influenced by the behavior of the EUR/USD. Mirroring which, it rose by 200 points.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Experts are once again split equally, being in this position for three weeks now. As for the trend indicators, 90% of them look southward. The picture is quite different among oscillators, almost half of them giving signals that this pair is oversold. Graphical analysis on D1 joins them, according to its readings, the pair expects to return to the October highs in the zone 1.1835-1.1880, and then the rise to September peaks at the level of 1.2000-1.2100. It should be noted that in the medium term, about 70% of analysts vote for the return of the pair to the range 1.1800-1.2100.
    As for the upcoming week, among the events that can significantly determine trends is the release of the latest data on the labor market in the United States on Friday, 3 November. The data includes the very important NFP indicator - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Last month it had a negative value of minus 33K. Should the NFP increase to 270-300K as expected, the dollar will be strongly boosted. It should be noted that large market participants often make plays on such news in advance, already a few days before their official announcement.
    Of course, one should also add to this that, by the end of next week, the next Fed head may be revealed. In the meantime, it is evident that Janet Yellen and Kevin Warsh have been eliminated from the competition;
    [​IMG]

    - The forecast for GBP/USD is still mostly negative. This is the view most (60%) of analysts, graphical analysis and 90% of indicators on H4 and D1 adhere to. However, when switching to a larger timeframe (W1), the picture changes, giving cause to speak about a lateral trend with support on the area of 1.3000-1.3020. The next support is 100 points lower. Resistance is at the levels of 1.3225 and 1.3285. The ultimate goal in case of growth is 1.3335.
    Thursday, 2 November will be important for the British pound, as a large amount of news from the Bank of England is expected. According to forecasts, the number of votes for raising the interest rate may triple; the rate itself may probably be raised from 0.25% to 0.50%;

    - To switch to sports terminology, the odds of the growth of USD/JPY are estimated as 2 to 1. More than 65% of experts believe that, with a base at the support at 113.25, it will once again try to test the upper boundary of the medium-term side channel 108.00-114.50. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this.
    As for the alternative point of view, its supporters believe that the potential for growth of the pair has already dried up and it will take a breather, dropping for a while into the zone 112.25-113.25;

    - And, finally, the USD/CHF. Here, 75% of analysts, with full support of technical analysis, say that the pair will certainly try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0000. The ultimate target is 1.0100. However, if the dollar starts to lose its positioning against the euro, it will with overwhelming probability also weaken with respect to the Swiss franc, as a result of which the pair may fall into the zone of 0.9750-0.9800.

    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  2. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX New Member

    Forex Forecast for EURUSD for the end of 2017 and for 2018

    According to statistics, more than 85% of transactions in financial markets are made with the participation of the US dollar, and about 30%, with the participation of the Euro. So, what do experts expect from the EUR/USD at the end of 2017 and in 2018?


    What the Bulls Say

    To begin with, of the 80 banks that submitted their forecasts for this pair in June, only 23 predicted its growth to $ 1.15 by the end of this year. And only a few believed that it could reach $ 1.18.

    Among the most accurate were the analysts of DZ Bank AG - Germany's second-largest bank, but they did not expect that already in early September, EUR/USD would come close to the height of 1.21.

    In total, since December 2016, the pair has added about 17%. Then, however, it went down to 1.16 following the ECB decisions on QE program, but this does not mean a final break in the uptrend. As analysts in DZ Bank AG believe, the Euro has a growth potential until the summer of 2018.


    "The growth of the Euro has surpassed many expectations," said John Gordon, a leading analyst at NordFX brokerage company. - For example, the strategy of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, generally adhering to the bullish forecast, expected that by the end of this year the pair would trade in the $ 1.14 zone, and the mark of $ 1.18 euro would be reached only by the end of 2018. The Bank of America Merill Lynch forecast looked like this: the end of 2017 - 1.15, the end of 2018 - 1.19.

    Even more modest forecast has been given by Rand Merchant Bank in summer, it expected the rate to be at the level of $ 1.12 by the middle of next year. About the same growth - up to $ 1.13 was mentioned by Bloomberg in its study as well.

    "Now, probably, many will have to reconsider their forecasts, - the NordFX analyst continues. - This is due, in the first place, to the fact that the banking strategists overestimated the centrifugal aspirations in Europe. Political risks here gradually come to naught. Negotiations on Brexit, elections in France and Germany, showed that, despite multiple negative factors, including events in Catalonia, the Eurozone is not threatened by the rapid collapse. On the other hand, the recovery of the European economy is gaining momentum and business activity indices are at long-term highs."


    As for the Dollar, it could not strengthen against the Euro and other major competitors in the outgoing year. "We are not tired of repeating that the Fed is no longer a "magic wand" for the dollar, which can strengthen the exchange rate, - say in DZ Bank AG. - The actions of the Fed in general are expected, which means that the "American" has nowhere to draw any strength from. The ECB, on the contrary, is full of surprises."

    The dynamics of the US economy in 2017 was weaker than predicted. And this, as noted in HSBC, coupled with the absence of real reforms, announced by Donald Trump, caused an outflow of speculative capital in favor of the Euro.


    So, what do the most optimistic forecasts look like as of today?

    According to analysts of the Dutch Rabobank, the Euro against the Dollar is now undervalued by about 11%, and, therefore, by mid-2018, the pair EUR/USD may rise to the level of 1.25.

    BNP Paribas experts expect more complex dynamics. According to their forecast, before growing by the IV quarter of 2018, to $ 1.23, in the I quarter, the pair should fall to $ 1.15.

    But in Societe Generale, they believe that first the Euro will grow to $ 1.20, and only then it will go down.
    [​IMG]


    Bearish fears

    "It would be wrong to say that everyone is optimistic about the Euro in the financial world," says John Gordon of NordFX. "Eurosceptics also have strong positions."

    Among the main challenges facing the EU is the problem of refugees and illegal migrants from North Africa and the Middle East.


    Another problem is the serious economic imbalance that arose because the Euro is not tied to one particular country. As a result, some of the countries of the Eurozone, whose economy is based mostly on agriculture, light industry and tourism, are experiencing financial difficulties. But countries with developed machine building received a major benefit from averaging the rate of the single currency.

    The largest beneficiary is Germany. The head of the US National Trade Council, Peter Navarro, even said that the current Euro is a disguised Deutsche mark. To which the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker replied no less starkly, announcing that he would support any state that would have decided to withdraw from the USA.

    Of course, these are just words, but a major trade conflict between the Old and New World is not out of the question, which can also pull the Euro down.


    In addition, one can expect one more move from Americans, which can sharply raise the dollar. It follows from the plan published by the US Treasury that in the fourth quarter of this year the US budget plans to increase the national debt and attract a record amount with the help of government bonds - about half a trillion dollars.

    Withdrawing such a huge volume of dollar liquidity from the market may increase the demand for this currency from such major banks as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, etc., which, naturally, will lead to the growth of the dollar.


    "Of course, if all the bearish forecasts, starting from trade disagreements with the United States and ending with the continuing intra-European risks, come true," says the NordFX analyst, "the EUR/USD may again head South as it did before. If you remember, back in January, the probability that the Euro and Dollar would come to parity was very high. All waited for the rate $ 1.00. But the apocalyptic predictions regarding the complete collapse of the European Union did not come true, and, having turned around at the mark 1.034, the pair once again went up."


    If you try to summarize the opinions of experts from leading banks, by the end of this year the pair is likely to move in the side channel 1.150-1.210. But in the event that, thanks to the actions of the Treasury and the US Fed, the Dollar still goes up, the next strong support for the pair will be the level of $ 1.110.


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  3. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX New Member

    NordFX is Recognized as the Most Reliable Broker of the Year Yet Again

    [​IMG]

    Exactly one year ago our company was declared the winner for 2016 in the ‘The Most Reliable Broker’ category according to TheForeXAwards.com. This year, we were once again named ‘The Most Reliable Broker’ at the ShowFx World finance conference, which was held in Singapore in late October, this time for 2017.

    Many leading specialists in the field of trading and investments attended this landmark event as guests. We are sincerely grateful to the Forex community for yet again honoring us with this noteworthy award.

    Reliability is more than just one of many criteria for evaluating the work of a broker. It represents the face of a company in which traders entrust not only money, but also their hopes for a better future. That is why the protection and safety of our clients' funds has always been and will always remain the top priority at NordFX.
     
  4. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX New Member

    Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 13 - 17, 2017


    First, a review of last week’s forecast:

    - Just this summer, strategists of many large international banks had designated the 2015 and 2016 highs in the zone 1.15-1.16 as momentous for EUR/USD. The past two weeks of November confirmed this: this entire time the pair has been moving east along the horizon 1.1600, and its main fluctuations, aside from rare inconsistencies, were within the boundaries of 1.1575-1.1660. It was in this upper border of the side corridor that the pair completed the weekly session;

    - GBP/USD. This pair has been in a horizontal trend within 1.3035-1.3320 for more than a month. As for this past week, it saw the bulls try to win back losses of the first days of November. However, pushing away from the lower border of the channel, they were able to rise only slightly higher than its Pivot Point, finishing close to the level of 1.3200;

    - USD/JPY did not bring any surprises. As expected, it once again tried to test the upper boundary of the mid-term lateral channel 108.00-114.50. And, as expected, after having failed, it took a breather and sank to the support of 113.00, drawing out a textbook descending channel on the chart;

    - Recall that two weeks ago, 75% of analysts, with full support of technical analysis, said that USD/CHF would certainly try to gain a foothold above 1.0000. This scenario turned out to be 100% true. However, without the support of EUR/USD, the forward momentum of the pair dried up: never reaching the final target of 1.0100, it moved to a lateral movement, ending the five-day period at 0.9960.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. An overwhelming majority of experts (65%) vote for the growth of this pair, albeit a small one. In their opinion, having beaten off from strong support / resistance level 1.1665, the pair should go up: first to 1.1725, and then another 100 points higher. Both graphical analysis and about 70% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, when switching to the D1 timeframe, the picture changes to the opposite - here most of the indicators predict the pair's fall to 1.1555. The following support is in the 1.1475 zone;

    - The outlook for GBP/USD is negative: over 60% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 think so. The nearest support is at 1.3035, and in case of its breakthrough – at 1.2870. An alternative point of view is expressed by 15% of experts and by indicators on D1, but even here a quarter of the oscillators signal the pair is overbought. As for the remaining 25% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will continue to move in the lateral channel 1.3035-1.3320;

    - The forecast for the USD/JPY fluctuates between neutral and negative. 70% of experts and about a half of trend indicators and oscillators vote for a downtrend. 40% of the indicators have taken a neutral position, while only 10% of them light up green. Nevertheless, 30% of analysts side with the bulls. The targets remain the same as previously. For the bulls, it is to try to gain a foothold above the upper boundary of the mid-term side channel, which is 114.50. For the bears, it is to return to the Pivot Point of this channel in the 111.70 zone;
    [​IMG]

    - USD/CHF. As often happens, the forecast for this pair mirrors the forecast for the EUR/USD, with this case being no exception. 65% of experts with the support of indicators on H4 predict the pair will fall to support 0.9860. The remaining 35% of analysts disagree with this: according to them the pair will rush again to storm the height of 1.0100 from the very start of the week. As for graphical analysis, it offers an alternative opinion on D1: an initial descent to the level of 0.9860, followed by a rise to 1.0100, and then by lateral movement in this channel.

    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  5. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX New Member

    Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 20 - 24, 2017


    First, a review of last week’s forecast:

    - Recall that, when giving the forecast for the EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) supported the growth of this pair. In their opinion, having beaten off strong support/resistance level 1.1665, the pair should go up - first to the height of 1.1725, and then another 100 points higher.
    This is exactly what happened - on Monday and part of Tuesday the pair moved in the side corridor along the horizon 1.1665, and then, rushing upwards, on Wednesday it reached the height of 1.1860. The reason for such a rapid spurt was the statistics of the Eurozone, whose GDP has been growing for the fifth consecutive month. In addition, the index of economic sentiment from ZEW was better than expected - 30.9 against 29.3.
    Then the pair sharply turned to the south, which again was caused by the positive statistics, which this time came from the United States. Data on inflation and the consumer market supported the dollar, and it was able to win back about 70 points from the euro and completed the week in zone 1.1790;

    - GBP/USD. More than 60% of analysts gave a negative forecast for this pair, naming horizon 1.3035 as support. The pair really immediately rushed down, however, not reaching the goal of some 25 points, changed the trend to ascendant and on Friday, it almost touched the mark 1.3260. Then, here again, the dollar managed to win back several tens of points, and the pair returned to the marks of the beginning of the week at 1.3200;

    - 70% of experts and about half of the trend indicators and oscillators voted for the downtrend for the USD/JPY. Pivot Point of the mid-term side channel 108.00-114.50 in the area of 111.70 was named as target. Considering that in reality Pivot Point is not a line, but a corridor of a certain range, we can assume that this forecast came true all 100%, the pair went to the south about 175 points and reached the local bottom at the level of 111.95 during the week;

    - The forecast was correct for the USD/CHF as well. As predicted by 65% of experts, supported by indicators on H4, by mid-week the pair fell to the level of 0.9845, after which the rebound up by 100 points followed.
    It should be noted that such a fracture had been calculated quite precisely by graphical analysis, which had indicated first the fall of the pair to the level of 0.9860, and then its rise.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. It is quite difficult to determine the weekly trend for this pair this time, since exactly a half of the experts vote for its fall, and the second half are for its growth. In this regard, most promising is the forecast, which is given by graphical analysis. According to its readings on H4, the pair will move in the side corridor in the range from 1.1700 to 1.1860 for a while. At this, first the pair is expected to go down to the lower border of the given channel, and then to bounce up.
    Graphical analysis on D1 draws a wider range of oscillations - reduction to support 1.1600, and subsequent retreat to the height of 1.2050.
    It should also be noted that throughout the coming week, data on the state of both the European economy and the economies of the United States, Japan, Germany and Switzerland will be published. However, volatility in the market is likely to be caused by the ECB head M. Draghi's speeches on Monday, November 20 and the Fed Chair J. Yellen on Wednesday, November 22, as well as the hearing of the inflation report in the UK, the ECB's monetary policy meeting and the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve;

    - it seems that the GBP/USD will continue to move in a fairly wide medium-range lateral channel, which began in late September - early October this year. The lower boundary of the channel is 1.3035, the upper boundary is 1.3320. 40% of experts, supported by almost 90% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, in an attempt to break the upper limit, will move to the north. However, most analysts (60%) tend to believe that it will stay for a while in the central zone of the channel, moving west in the range of 1.3100-1.3235;
    [​IMG]

    - The USD/JPY also continues to fluctuate within the channel 108.00-114.50. At the same time, 75% of experts believe that in the coming days it will once again test the support in the Pivot Point zone of this channel 111.70. 60% of analysts are sure that it will not be able to overcome it, and it will once again rush to the height of 114.50.
    Indicators also support such a scenario. At the moment, 90% of them are painted red, with a quarter of the oscillators pointing the pair is oversold, which is a fairly accurate signal for the trend to reverse;

    - USD/CHF. 60% of experts and 75% of indicators point to the south, the nearest target is 0.9800, the next - 0.9715. An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1, according to which the bulls have not yet fully exhausted their potential, and the pair is expected to grow, at least, to mark 1.0100. The nearest resistance is 0.9940, which, after the breakdown, will become the main support.

    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     

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