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Dollar to look into FOMC and Non-Farm Payroll

The focus should turn back to a busy week in the US, with FOMC meeting and non-farm payroll featured. At this point, the base case for Fed remains unchanged. That is, Fed will continue with its plan of a total of three rate hikes this year. That would be followed by a "brief pause" as Fed starts shrinking its balance sheet later in the year. Markets are pricing in over 60% chance of a rate hike by Fed in June. It's generally believed Fed will look past the weaker than expected Q1 GDP data. The key will now be on how the US economic bounce back in Q2. And the set of ISM indices for May and NFP for April will be crucial.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD's rally continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Rise from 1.2108 is still in progress and further rally would be seen to 1.3184 projection level. But price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Hence we'd start to look for reversal signal above 1.3184.

Initial bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside this week. Current rise should target 161.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.3184. At this point, price actions from 1.1946 are still interpreted as a correction pattern. Therefore, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2755 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Further break of 1.2614 resistance turned support will now indicate near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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