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GBP/USD hovers above 23.6% fib r, eyes us ism non-manufacturing employment index

The pull back in the GBP/USD pair ran out of steam at the low of 1.2893 on Wednesday after the Fed minutes showed lack of consensus among policymakers on when to begin the balance sheet reduction process. 


The spot closed at 1.2931 yesterday and hovered above 1.2926 (23.6% Fib R of 1.2589-1.3031). The UK data docket is empty hence the focus is on the US data releases - ADP employment change, weekly jobless claims, trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing, Markit services PMI and Fed speak - Powell and Fischer. 


Focus on ISM non-manufacturing employment index


An uptick in the service sector employment index would boost expectations of a blow out non-farm payrolls figure (due tomorrow) and would push treasury yields and US dollar higher. On the contrary, a weak number would raise concerns about the slowdown in the hiring and weigh over the USD. 


The ADP data due at 12:15 GMT is expected to show that the job growth in the private sector decelerated sharply to 185K in June from 255K in May. 180K is still a good number given the low unemployment rate and a falling labor force participation rate. Thus, the USD is unlikely to move much, unless the ADP prints around or below 100. 


GBP/USD Technical Levels


A break above 1.2950 (5-DMA) would expose 1.2978 (June 8 high), above which a major hurdle is seen at 1.3031 (June 30 high). On the downside, breach of support at 1.2926 (23.6% Fib) could yield a pullback to 1.2893 (10-DMA) and 1.2874 (50-DMA). The daily chart also shows a bullish crossover between 50-DMA and 10-DMA. 



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