Headline CPI likely to have risen 0.1% mom in June – Deutsche Bank
We’re ending today in the US with some very significant data in the form of the June CPI report and Deutsche Bank economists expects headline and core CPI to have risen +0.1% mom and +0.2% mom respectively which is also in line with the market consensus.
“Should their forecast be close to the mark then the year over year growth rate of core CPI would rise a tenth to +1.8% which would be mildly positive for dovish-leaning policymakers fretting about recent soft in?ation. That would also be one-tenth ahead of the consensus. However it is worth noting that core CPI has missed expectations for the last three months and the 3m average surprise has dropped to the lowest (-0.17%) since June 2005 (when it was the same level). So it’ll be interesting to see if today bucks the trend.”
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