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Sept most likely choice for ECB policy change; July a close call

Results of the latest Reuters poll of economists showed that the ECB is likely to announce the next policy shift to a more hawkish narrative in September.


Key Findings:


 “Reuters polled of over 75 economists 


Euro zone economic growth is expected to remain strong but steady through to the end of 2018


The ECB's most likely course of action in September is to announce a tapering of its 60 billion euros of monthly asset purchases, probably starting in early 2018


A little over one-quarter of the economists polled said the ECB will not announce any change in September.


A similar proportion of economists predict an extension to its quantitative easing program beyond December, but with a reduction in the amount of monthly asset purchases.


At the July meeting, only slightly more than half of the sample - 56 percent - said the ECB will not make any changes to its guidance on monetary policy.


Over a quarter of the respondents said the ECB will drop its QE easing bias with regard to size only and the remaining said the central bank will scale back its asset purchases program in its entirety.”

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